The company was on pace to generate more than $1 billion in its first year on the market.
Tecfidera's performance helped Biogen (BIIB) deliver a record $1.97 billion in overall Q4 revenue.
That was up 39% from the prior year — the biotech's biggest quarterly gain in years — and slightly ahead of estimates.
Earnings for the quarter also enjoyed their biggest gain in years, rising 39% to $2.34 a share and beating expectations by 6 cents.
That's
the good news. On the downside, Biogen guided 2014 profit below analyst
expectations — perhaps due to higher research and development costs —
though the company did guide revenue above most estimates.
Bright Spots
While the mixed forecast has fostered caution, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on Biogen.
For
one thing, Tecfidera should continue to bolster the company's top line,
with sales expected to advance further in the U.S., says Karen
Anderson, analyst at Morningstar. Additional sales should come from a
rollout in Europe this year, starting in Germany.
Sales
of other top Biogen drugs are slowing, as is typical for maturing
treatments, but should produce strong numbers through much of 2014.
Sales of MS therapy Avonex, Biogen's biggest seller last year, were flat
in the fourth quarter at $751 million, but still beat expectations for a
modest decline.
Biogen
has multiple revenue drivers and should significantly boost its top and
bottom lines this year. But there are questions about the pace of
growth.
Anderson
will keep a close watch for pricing pressure on older MS drugs if
insurers push generic versions. She also wants to see a clearer picture
on Biogen's midstage pipeline — drugs that could drive expansion in
coming years.
Midstage
pipeline drugs are important because some of the new drugs Biogen is
rolling out this year could produce only a minor bump to overall sales.
"We're not particularly bullish on these (new) products," Andersen said.
Biogen
plans to launch a pair of drugs for hemophilia and an MS drug this
year. But the market for hemophilia treatments is already crowded, and
the new MS offering is essentially a longer-lasting version of an older
class of drugs.
None
of those new offerings is expected to perform on the level of
Tecfidera, which was approved for sale last March. As Cross Current
Research noted in a recent report, the three drugs slated to launch this
year "may not have a 'wow' effect on the stock."
